When Prophecy Fails 2nd with new foreword by Elliot Aronson Leon Festinger Stanley Schachter Henry W Riecken Elliot Aronson
Download As PDF : When Prophecy Fails 2nd with new foreword by Elliot Aronson Leon Festinger Stanley Schachter Henry W Riecken Elliot Aronson 
In 1954 Leon Festinger, a brilliant young experimental social psychologist in the process of inventing a new theory of human behavior - the theory of cognitive dissonance - and two of his colleagues, Henry Riecken and Stanley Schachter, infiltrated a cult who believed the end of the world was only months away. How would these people feel when their prophecy remained unfulfilled? Would they admit the error of their prediction, or would they, as Festinger predicted, readjust their reality to make sense of the new circumstances?
Not only is When Prophecy Fails of great historical importance as the first test of a powerful theory, but it is also a surprisingly touching account of what happens to ordinary people under extraordinary circumstances.
“Reconnecting with this book after fifty years has given me a renewed appreciation for the genius and audacity of Leon Festinger and his colleagues. I prophesy that it will do the same for you.” Elliot Aronson, author of The Social Animal and Mistakes were made (but not by me) in his foreword
"In a story woven together from the perspectives of the different investigators, we get to see the hilariously desperate attempts of the group members to validate their sci-fi belief system, and the bizarre home life of the lady whose "channelled" messages from space are the focus of the group.
The behaviour of the investigators as they try to cover their real activities draws suspicion, and the medium interprets this as a sign that they are themselves alien visitors. As the disappointing non-end-of-the-world arrives, the investigators find themselves irreversibly involved in the group they are supposed to be objectively studying. This book is why I gave up reading fiction. No novel is as exciting or as revealing of the human condition as a true story like this." Dr Martin Poulter
When Prophecy Fails 2nd with new foreword by Elliot Aronson Leon Festinger Stanley Schachter Henry W Riecken Elliot Aronson
I picked this up because of a mention in a podcast, and found myself fascinated by the general premise. As anyone who's been hanging out in particular corners of media fandom know, there was quite a "prophecy" delivered by a "conspiracy" of people who claimed to read the "true signs" about the endgame between the two main characters of a certain popular BBC detective show. The fact that this did not come to pass on the foretold date has not made the "conspiracy" adherents disappear - indeed, some are more convinced than ever that their endgame is bound to happen.Reading this book shows that this is a pattern as old as time, and they present two case studies where the endgame was the end of the world or the second coming (with flying saucers, in one case). It makes for riveting, baffling reading - humans are <I>strange</I>, and anything to do with belief and religion doubly so. It explains - or at least exemplifies - cognitive dissonance at its finest.
However, I also feel that it would be highly implausible that an ethics committee would approve the kind of study the authors engaged in back in 1953 today, and it's a bit unsettling reading about very private moments and crises of faith that members of this group had thinking themselves safe with their in-group, only to be riddled with observers bent on publishing everything they said. So I feel I can't really rate this - it's a classic in its field, it's incredibly interesting, but might also be seen as incredibly dodgy?
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When Prophecy Fails 2nd with new foreword by Elliot Aronson Leon Festinger Stanley Schachter Henry W Riecken Elliot Aronson Reviews
Interesting, easy reading. Not about religion per se, but lends insight into religion and the evolution of belief systems and the continuing support and bolstering of belief even after significant elements of the belief are proven wrong. A brief history of “cognitive dissonance” (a term coined by Festinger in this book) is included as well as the specific case study, and the authors' methodology is described.
The group in this study predicted the destruction of the world on December 21, 1954. More recently the end of the world was predicted to coincide with the “end” of the Mayan calendar on December 21, 2012. This classic study is as relevant today as when written.
A fascinating inside look at a 1950s flying saucer cult in Chicago. The world faced cataclysm, but the faithful would be taken to safety aboard a flying saucer at midnight. What happens after the prophecy fails is explained by Leon Festinger's theory of "cognitive dissonance." Other doomsday cults, such as the 1840s Millerites, have faced the same disappointment. Festinger says the "cognitive dissonance" caused by the "disconfirming event" may be resolved by one of a handful of means, but usually there is a burst of proselytization. In other words, the cult bounces back stronger than ever until subsequent disconfirming events (failed prophecies) force people to face reality.
"Cognitive dissonance" is a useful lens to view movements and even examine the stresses in one's own life when one finds oneself holding two contradictory "cognitions."
It is hard to understand how intelligent people could act like the subjects in When Prophecy Fails. Ultimately, the book is a tragedy about people's need to believe.
When Prophecy Fails is as relevant today as it was decades ago when a little doomsday cult predicted a flood that never came. I'm a professor in a social scientific-minded communication department. It seems that no matter what class I teach, I'm always using this book as an example. From a theoretical and research perspective, it's a great field study designed to test Festinger's ideas about cognitive dissonance. It also stands as a rigorous and meticulous example of the method of data collection via participant-observation. Readers will also appreciate the beginning material chronicling known failed predictions throughout history.
And the writing style is lucidly accessible and the detailed characterizations of the people involved and action unfolding are compelling enough for even the casual reader. I've always been a fan of Leon Festinger's work, but no matter one's personal givings about dissonance theory, it is tough not to appreciate the laborious efforts of this tireless and dedicated research team in producing this study. I admire those who are able to foresee real-world applications of their ideas in advance so as to be able to properly test them as the real-world events unfold. Festinger et al. were brilliant in this regard. A must-read for anyone interested in solid research methodologies and applied learning.
I first became aware of this book when reading Howard Blooms book The Lucifer Principal. I was surprised to find out this book was written back in the mid 50s. Nevertheless I think it is an important study of human behavior that is relevant to this day. I was especially interested in the study’s findings about cognitive dissonance. The tendency for humans to ignore the truth to maintain their illusions. Fascinating indeed!
This is a must read if you want to understand the directions and actions being taken in today's political arena. Spoiler alert read no further.
What happens when you deeply commit to a belief both financially and emotionally and bad things happen? The group divides mostly into two camps
a) Our belief(s) were false and I/we quit the group/cult/organization
b) Our belief(s) are sound. We made mistakes that caused the current aberration; we didn't prey hard enough; we must rally the troops we are under attack; we must get more publicity and followers.
There is a WIki cliff notes synopsis of the book, but it is more edifying if you read this relatively short book. It's lessons are applicable to our daily lives.
I picked this up because of a mention in a podcast, and found myself fascinated by the general premise. As anyone who's been hanging out in particular corners of media fandom know, there was quite a "prophecy" delivered by a "conspiracy" of people who claimed to read the "true signs" about the endgame between the two main characters of a certain popular BBC detective show. The fact that this did not come to pass on the foretold date has not made the "conspiracy" adherents disappear - indeed, some are more convinced than ever that their endgame is bound to happen.
Reading this book shows that this is a pattern as old as time, and they present two case studies where the endgame was the end of the world or the second coming (with flying saucers, in one case). It makes for riveting, baffling reading - humans are <I>strange</I>, and anything to do with belief and religion doubly so. It explains - or at least exemplifies - cognitive dissonance at its finest.
However, I also feel that it would be highly implausible that an ethics committee would approve the kind of study the authors engaged in back in 1953 today, and it's a bit unsettling reading about very private moments and crises of faith that members of this group had thinking themselves safe with their in-group, only to be riddled with observers bent on publishing everything they said. So I feel I can't really rate this - it's a classic in its field, it's incredibly interesting, but might also be seen as incredibly dodgy?
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